Tensions along the border between Lebanon and Israel have already provoked violence. Following an Israeli airstrike on a Hezbollah arms convoy in 2015, the group responded with rocket and artillery fire against Israeli military positions, which killed two soldiers. However, the incident did not escalate further. This restraint is partially the result of memories from the last major conflict between Israel and Lebanon in 2006, which exacted a high toll on both sides and effectively resulted in stalemate.
Nevertheless, says Badran, “Hezbollah is probably not in a position where they’d want to initiate a conflict.” The Syrian war is still hot, and “Iran and its proxies especially need time to connect its Iraqi, Syrian, and Lebanese assets. Hezbollah will then use that territory for, among other things, striking Israel, transforming its presence in Syria from a constraint to an enormous advantage.”
PressTV-Lebanon ‘sure to win’ war with Israel: FM Bassil
Despite the worries, analysts, officials and diplomats said that although they were not privy to the thinking of the Saudi crown prince, it was far-fetched that Saudi Arabia would launch a military action against Lebanon, since it is already overstretched in a war it started two years ago against Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen.
The Lebanon War 1982 - Anti-Defamation League
Several Israeli officials seized on Mr. Hariri’s resignation — which he attributed to Iranian interference — as proof that Hezbollah, Iran and the Lebanese government were one and the same. That has fueled anxiety even as both Israel and Hezbollah insist that while they are prepared for a war, they do not want one now.
How Israel Bungled the Second Lebanon War :: Middle …
Lebanon had already been drawn into the crisis in two ways: After a rocket was fired from Yemen at the Saudi capital, Riyadh, on Saturday, of aiding in the attack. And they declared that the attack amounted to a declaration of war by Lebanon, a leap given that the weak Lebanese state does not control Hezbollah.
Russia and the Next Lebanon War | Foreign Affairs
Dan Shapiro, a former US ambassador to Israel and a fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, that by removing Hariri, Saudi Arabia could provoke an "Israeli response" and "bloody the nose of Hezbollah."
Israel's Coming War with Hezbollah | The Weekly …
Hezbollah leader Sayyad Hassan Nasrallah explicitly , saying in a speech that "Saudi Arabia is inciting Israel to launch a war against Lebanon."
Lebanon Next in US War on Middle East | New Eastern …
Nasrallah, as well as other leading Lebanese figures, seem to be hedging on Hariri's resignation, likely to give the impression of a united Lebanese government and not allow cause for conflict.